UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway - Betting Picks & Predictions
UFC 329 picks and predictions for McGregor vs Holloway 2
UFC 329 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for International Fight Week and will see the return of 2 of the sport’s biggest stars. The former double champ, Conor McGregor, steps into the cage for the first time since 2021. McGregor will face the former featherweight champion, Max Holloway, in a rematch that’s 13 years in the making.
UFC 329 also features a lightweight contender clash between Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint-Denis. Plus, former bantamweight title challenger Cory Sandhagen takes on Mario Bautista. There are lots of exciting fights to watch, and the card is also a great opportunity for bettors because of the great odds and interesting matchups.
You can bet on every fight at UFC 329 here at Stake Sportsbook. The latest MMA betting odds are available now, and there are plenty of betting opportunities on this card. Before you bet, check out our expert opinions and analysis of the upcoming fights right here at Stake. We base our predictions on fighting style matchups, career statistics and recent performances.
McGregor vs Holloway 2 main fight prediction
Max Holloway is our pick to win the rematch against Conor McGregor, with the Hawaiian having the more recent activity and better wins. We’re predicting him to finish McGregor in the later rounds.
The first fight between these two opponents took place in 2013. Back then, Holloway was just 21 years old. Holloway lost the fight, with McGregor deviating from his usual style to take him down and control him on the canvas. This was apparently due to suffering an ACL tear in the second round, which meant he was unable to kick or throw punches effectively. That was McGregor’s 2nd fight in the UFC, and he went on an impressive run to capture the featherweight belt just 2 years later.
Although both fighters started out in the featherweight division of the UFC, they each moved up to compete at lightweight. Now, the rematch will be held at welterweight, meaning both fighters will be weighing in at 170 lbs.
Can McGregor overcome five years of ring rust at welterweight?
Conor McGregor's return to the cage is the biggest story in combat sports right now. He’s the biggest star that the UFC has ever produced, but has spent the last five years out of action. His most recent fight saw him lose to Dustin Poirier, breaking his ankle at the end of the first round. Before that, he’d been knocked out by Poirier, and the 37-year-old has been finished in all of his UFC losses.
McGregor’s last win was against Donald Cerrone back in 2020. While he has a record of 10 wins and 4 losses in the UFC, his ring rust could be a major factor in this fight. Fighters rarely look good after so many years out of the cage, as it affects their timing and reaction speed, 2 things that McGregor was always known for. In addition, McGregor has fought at welterweight only once before. That was in his first loss to Nate Diaz, which was his first-ever loss in the UFC.
Why Holloway's volume striking could be the difference at 170 pounds
Holloway is one of the top strikers in UFC history, with records for the most significant strikes landed and the most total strikes landed in a single fight. He uses a high volume of strikes, as well as creative movement and kicks, to overwhelm his opponents. In the UFC, Holloway has a 57% finish rate, including a KO win against the current lightweight champion, Justin Gaethje.
However, this will be the first time Holloway has fought at 170 lbs in his career. Although he’s a tall fighter with a lot of reach, Holloway isn’t a big lightweight by any means, so it will be interesting to see how he looks in the cage. When he first moved up to the lightweight division, he lacked the power he’d shown at featherweight. He may have to rely on volume punching and avoiding McGregor’s left hand to win the fight. You can read our exclusive pre-fight interview with Holloway and gather insights into how he's feeling before coming up to the ring this weekend.
Pimblett vs Saint-Denis co-main fight prediction
We’re predicting Pimblett to upset the odds and beat Benoit Saint-Denis in the co-main event. Both of these lightweight contenders are exciting to watch, with skills in all areas of the fight.
Saint-Denis is currently on a 4-fight win streak that includes an impressive submission against Mauricio Ruffy. Meanwhile, Pimblett just had his 7-fight win streak broken by the current champion, Justin Gaethje. Pimblett struggled against Gaethje, but showed incredible heart and toughness that might be enough to win the fight against Saint-Denis.
While there’s no denying that he’s dangerous, Saint-Denis has shown he’s susceptible to pushing too hard and gassing himself out. They’re both very dangerous on the ground, so it may come down to who has the better striking and greater durability.
Our picks for the rest of the UFC 329 card
Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista - Sandhagen has only lost to the very best fighters in the division, most recently losing to Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili. Bautista recently had his impressive 8-fight win streak broken by Umar Nurmagomedov, but won his last fight with a submission against Vinicius Oliveira. Sandhagen by decision.
Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh - Royval has looked like he’s declined in his last few fights, losing to the current champion, Joshua Van, before being KO’d by Manel Kape. On the other hand, Lone’er Kavanagh is on the up, after comfortably beating Brandon Moreno earlier in the year. However, he has just 4 fights in the UFC. Kavanagh by decision.
King Green vs. Terrance McKinney - Green has finished his last 2 opponents and is on a 2-fight win streak, with his most recent losses to Mauricio Ruffy and Paddy Pimblett. Meanwhile, McKinney is coming off a round 1 KO win, but has been stopped twice in his last 5 fights and has never fought to a decision. Green by KO.
Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov - Former middleweight interim champ Whittaker has lost his last 2 fights, most recently ending up on the wrong end of a split decision against Reinier de Ridder. He’ll now be testing the waters at light heavyweight for the first time in his career. Krylov bounced back from 2 consecutive losses to win his last fight by stoppage in the 3rd round. Krylov by KO.
Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison - Steveson only has 3 professional MMA fights so far, including a win at LFA. But as an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, he has massive potential. Ellison is 0-1 in the UFC. Steveson by KO.
Cody Garbrandt vs. Adrian Yañez - Garbrandt has looked slow and hittable even in his most recent wins. While he still possesses knockout power, so does Yañez, with an 83% KO rate in the UFC. Yañez by KO.
Luke Riley vs. Kai Kamaka III - Riley is an undefeated prospect who’s now 2-0 in the UFC. Former Bellator fighter Kamaka won a split decision in his last UFC fight. Riley by KO.
Tracy Cortez vs. Wang Cong - Tracey Cortez is the latest Stake x UFC partner and has recent wins over Viviana Araujo and Jasmine Jasudavicius. Cortez is known for her grit and determination, but she’s facing tough competition in Cong, who has just 1 career loss and 4 wins in the UFC. Cortez recently changed camp, relocating to Mexico City ahead of this fight, and this change could give her the push she needs. You can read what she has to say about her upcoming fight in our exclusive UFC 329 interview with Tracy to gain more insight before the fight! Cortez by decision.
Damian Pinas vs. César Almeida - Pinas has just 1 fight in the UFC, but he finished his opponent in the first round, a repeat of his performance on the Contender Series. Pinas by KO.
Ryan Gandra vs. Zachary Reese - Gandra is 1-0 in the UFC, with consecutive 1st-round finishes in his last 2 fights. Gandra by KO.
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa - Costa is on a 2-fight win streak, and all 4 of his UFC wins were by KO/TKO. Costa by KO.
UFC 329 parlay picks and longshot plays
Best UFC 329 parlay combinations
You can combine UFC bets in your betslip to place a parlay and increase the fight odds and your potential payout. However, every selection has to win for your bet to pay. We like Kavanagh, Sandhagen and Holloway all to win as a parlay combination for UFC 329
Remember, you can use the Stake shield feature, which lets you protect your UFC 329 parlay in case one selection loses.
Method of victory and round betting picks worth backing
We’ve listed our method of victory picks for each fight above. When choosing a method of victory pick, look at each fighter’s record and how their fights typically end. If a fighter is a big puncher, they may offer value depending on the available odds. Meanwhile, a submission artist against a fighter who’s weak on the ground also presents a good betting opportunity.
The round betting picks are also a good option for when you think a fight is likely to go to decision or will end in a stoppage. For example, Terrence McKinney has never fought to a decision in any of the 26 fights in his career, so there may be value in betting on under 2.5 rounds.
Where to bet on UFC 329 and watch the fights live at Stake
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Open the event page, search for the fighter you want to bet on, or use the menu to look up MMA > UFC > UFC 329 to see all live and upcoming fights.
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Choose a bet to add to your bet slip, then enter your stake and confirm to place the bet.
Select the live stream button to watch the event live for free.
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